Last month I was in a car wreck. I am fine, but my car was totalled. Also, the busy season has started at work with a vengeance. One thing’s for sure, ELvis is recession-proof! I am so sorry, all 3 of you loyal readers, for leaving you hanging. I will have some cool stuff up soon. Stay tuned.
May 14, 2009
PHREAKNESS
The Filly will face The Derby Winner in The Preakness
The Preakness must suffer from the “middle child syndrome” — there can be no other reason why this otherwise unremarkable race has offered fans such rich drama and curious occurances over its 134 runnings.
It’s the only Triple Crown race to have ever been run in two divisions, resulting in 2 different winners in 1918. The clubhouse has been struck by lightning (1909) and even burned down (1966). The race was homeless for several years in the late 1800s, when five runnings were held at Belmont Park.
In more recent history, the Preakness has suffered a track-wide power outage (1998); a drunken (and suicidal) infielder ran out onto the track and punched at horses racing in the 1999 sprint race on the Preakness undercard. Afleet ALex clipped heels with Scrappy T and stumbled to his knees, but his athletic jockey stayed on and the colt galloped home by daylight in 2005. Of course, there has been plenty said about Barbaro in 2006.
This year’s drama has so far happened off the track: Rachel Alexandra was sold to Jess Jackson for the sole purpose of competing in the Preakness. Ahmed Zayat then threatened on TVG that he’d stuff the gate with his own runners so that the filly couldn’t get in. Marylou Whitney was even wrapped up in the controversy. By Monday, all of the craziness was over, Zayat recanted and Rachel was in.
It’s good that Rachel ALexandra will get to face colts. She is a big, sturdy filly and should have no problems keeping up with the boys. She’s already faster than most of them. Borel is sticking with her over his Derby winner, which speaks volumes to her talent. Borel will also do everything he can to protect her should the race prove to be too much for her. I’m not worried about her physical condition or of her getting injured. Rags To Riches ran in the Belmont, for goodness sakes. So did Silverbulletday, my #1 favorite filly of all time. Rachel will be fine.
She will also win. As much as I’d love for Pioneerof The Nile to turn the tables on Mine That Bird, or even for Mine That Bird to continue the impossible dream, I believe Rachel has the speed and strength to win this race. The pace will be much faster here than the Derby, with Big Drama and Take The Points in the gate. But she can sit just off the leaders. She also has a better tactical turn of foot than most of the colts. Borel can put her anywhere he wants.
If it rains, Mine That Bird will be dangerous.
May 10, 2009
If Frank Caliendo was a race caller…
Watch this vid. This is Frank Miramahdi, caller at Turf Paradise, in the 2009 Hasta La Vista Handicap. The race is a 1 7/8 mile “marathon”…needless to say, there’s not a lot of lead changes over that span…see how many “celebrity guests” you recognize!
…and God Bless the soul of Luke Krytbosch!
May 4, 2009
Mine That Bird : The Susan Boyle of Horse Racing
Could it all be just a dream? Calvin Borel celebrates atop 135th Derby winner Mine That Bird, a 50-1 shot. Photo by AP.
He stepped onto the stage, a plain, brown gelding, small in stature, and all but invisible among the flashy stars of the Triple Crown trail. Handicappers, racing fans, industry insiders, racing commentators, all of them rolled their eyes when reading his name in the post parade: Mine That Bird.
Steven Levitt, economist and racing fan, wrote in his Freakonomics blog, “If I had to pick a last-place finisher…it would be Mine That Bird.” In the 3-strikes formula employed by Jon White, Mine That Bird had 5. Message board commenters joked about him crossing the wire next week. His speed figures weren’t good enough, he wasn’t fast enough, he’d only won on synthetic surfaces, these same colts had beaten him at the Breeders’ Cup, where he’d come in last — there really wasn’t a good reason for him to be there.
The brown horse knew nothing of this criticism. He went to post #8 with jockey Calvin Borel in the irons, a veteran who’d ridden a Derby winner in 2007. He was in good hands. All that was left was for him to perform.
When the gates opened, he started out so far back, it was as if he’d been left at the gate. The track was sloppy, and he was hit in the face with the slick mud off the other horses’ hooves. As the field flew through the backstretch, Mine That Bird began to move up, passing horses swiftly along the rail. Turning for home, the pacesetters traded the lead in a thrilling duel. The race caller’s attention was focused on the drama at the front of the pack, but what he didn’t see was the small, brown gelding closing furiously on the rail just behind them. In a dramatic burst, the muddy gelding slipped through a slot the size of a needle’s eye on that golden rail. He was in the lead! He was drawing away by 3! 4! 6 on the wire!
The people at Churchill Downs — the ladies in the soggy hats and the Infielders as muddy as the horses– stared in shock. Mine That Bird had done the impossible, at 50-1 odds!
I love the Kentucky Derby. No other sports event can compare with its propensity for surprise winners. All of the experts, this one included, totally ignored him. But he took flight on the muddy Churchill Down strip and prevailed by 6 3/4 lengths, surpassing even Barbaro in his dominance. The only thing I can think of that even comes close to the surprise and delight in this horse’s performance is Susan Boyle.
He took the stage a small, plain, brown gelding. He entered the Winners’ Circle covered in mud and roses, humming “I Dream A Dream.”
May 2, 2009
MINE THAT BIRD — Laughingstock to Legend!
50-1 longshot Mine That Bird just won the Kentucky Derby by 6! Calvin Borel rode the colt to victory with his signature rail-skimming ride. With his win on Rachel Alexandra yesterday, he joins an elite group of Derby-Oaks double winning jockeys, the last one being Jerry Bailey in 1993.
Mine That Bird — Derby winner
May 2, 2009
MAGIC 8 BALL DERBY PICKS!
Last year, I smuggled the Magic 8 Ball into the Infield with me and made a few wagers based on its liquid blue wisdom. The best it could do was assure me Intangaroo was “Very Likely” to win the Humana Distaff. I had fun with it, though, so here we go again!
Oh Magic 8 Ball, will the track dry out in time for the Derby? “Answer Unclear, Ask Again Later” Fine then…
Magic 8 Ball, wise and infalliable, will the Derby winner go off at odds higher than 10-1? “Don’t Bet On It”
Ok, will the morning line favorite wear the roses? “Consult Again Later“ Right, right — the ML favorite has scratched. How about the Post Time Favorite? Will that horse win? “The Stars Say NO”
Will the winner break from the auxiliary gate? “Focus And Ask Again” OK, (placing my fingers on my temples) oh honorable Magic 8 Ball, will the winner break from a far outside post position? “YES”
Will the Derby winning jockey be wearing green silks? “Chances Aren’t Good”
Will the Derby winning jockey be a first time winner? “Looks Like YES”
Does it matter if the horse has ever run on a traditional dirt surface? “Cannot Fortell Now” Hmmm…
How about the Godolphin horses? DO they have a shot this year? “So It Shall Be” WOW!! DOes this mean Sheik Mohammed will finally get his Derby winner? “Looks Like Yes” OMG! Will it be Desert Party? “Cannot Foretell Now” Ok, how about Regal Ransom? “Chances Aren’t Good” So it’s gonna be Desert Party, then? “So It Shall Be” That does it, I’m placing my bets now!
Ok, you told me to ask about the track again, will it be a fast track by Derby time? “VERY LIKELY“
SWEET! I don’t know about you, but I’m going to place a couple bucks on Desert Party in the Derby. People have picked winners off stranger methods!
May 1, 2009
THE INFIELD OFFICIAL DERBY PICKS
After today’s Oaks win by Rachel, the Derby has a tough act to follow.
1. PIONEEROF THE NILE: This colt has been so good that he has overcome his name and found a place at the top of my list. Bob Baffert was just elected to the Hall of Fame in Saratoga, which is good luck for those trainers with Derby horses: Neil Drysdale was elected the year FuPeg won, and D. Wayne Lukas was elected the year Charismatic won. Steve Haskin says the PNile had the best workout at CD and was the best-looking contender in terms of coat condition and attitude. On track, the son of Empire Maker has done nothing wrong, except not race on dirt. But the way he looked in his CD workouts put my questions to rest. He has shown that he can win off the pace, or up on it, as he did in the freaky running of the Santa Anita Derby. He has already beaten I Want Revenge twice, Chocolate Candy twice, Papa Clem and Mr. Hot Stuff. He breaks from post 16, not bad for his usual closing style. Garret Gomez chose PNile over Dunkirk, and I think he made the right choice. Jon White says he will win the whole Triple Crown if he can capture this first jewel. I won’t go that far. Yet.
2. I WANT REVENGE : Got out of Cali to avoid PNile and became the Morning Line Favorite by his brilliance on dirt. TV star jockey Joe Talamo will ride the near-black colt, which will pull some bets in from the teenybopper set. I Want Revenge has shown speed, heart and stamina with his wins in NY. Trainer Jeff Mullins has won big stakes before, and owners IEAH have lived the Derby dream before, with Big Brown.
3. GENERAL QUARTERS: He is the sentimental favorite with the heartwarming story. He is also a gritty competitor who has been versatile on a variety of surfaces.
4. PAPA CLEM: Can’t leave out the Arkansas Derby winner — beat Old Fashioned in a thrilling stretch duel.
5. FRIESAN FIRE: If it’s a sloppy track, this son of AP Indy will be dangerous. The Larry Jones trainee has been consistent all year. He has never run over 1 1/16 miles, however, and the 7-week layoff is worrisome.
Longshots that I will play in my exotics: CHOCOLATE CANDY… REGAL RANSOM … DUNKIRK … and whoever else I get a hankering about before Derby.
GOOD LUCK, PLAYERS! COME HOME SAFE, COLTS!
May 1, 2009
RACHEL ALEXANDRA!! SUPERFILLY
Rachel ALexandra gallops away from everybody in the Oaks. screencap by asti @ TBChampions
20+ Lengths winner of the 135th Oaks!!
April 30, 2009
MR. HOT STUFF will WIN the DERBY…
at least that’s what my boss predicted in his quirky coin-toss method of handicapping. He may have something there, since that 20-horse field is formidable for even the most experienced bettors. I’ll bet Mr. Hot Stuff $2 across the board just for kicks.
My official Infield Derby Picks & Analysis TOMORROW!
and of course, LIVE OAKS BLOG at 4pm CST!
